Viewpoints
Carla Ronga
Interview Emiliano Brancaccio, Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Sannio
"In the absence of global leadership alternative, you run the serious risk of a deadlock in the international monetary system. And if so, the profile of evolution of the global financial crisis could take really dark and unpredictable characteristics. To identify the roots should evoke a ghost: the conflict between capital and labor. " American liberals denounce the absence of rules in finance, others point the finger at the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and in the rules of Bretton Woods. These are all interpretations that contain elements of truth but none of them gives us a clue about the earthquake in general act. We spoke with Emiliano Brancaccio, Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Sannio, member of the council's economic FIOM and expert from the Italian banking. We can say that behind the financial crisis that is rocking the foundations of the world economy there is a cause, social origin? This economic earthquake that may find its roots in the crisis of social work and its representations? The explanations that have been given of the current crisis are numerous. The liberal Americans for Thurow to Krugman, denounced in particular the deregulation of wild finance, and others have drawn attention to the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, past and present. All these interpretations contain elements of truth but none of them seems to offer a key to overall earthquake in progress. The point is to find the roots of the crisis should evoke a ghost: the conflict between capital and labor. latita A conflict that is not there?. Exactly. In fact, the current crisis can be read as a reflection of the almost total absence of that global conflict. Everything starts with an observation: the weakness of the labor movement has meant that was created a world of low wages. This world, however, is structurally unstable, and now beginning to realize. Let me explain. Each country now aims to hold down wages and domestic demand, and then look outside its borders an outlet for their goods. This mechanism has worked in the past decade due to the fact that the U.S. has acted as a "sponge absorbing" the excess production of all other countries. However, this "sponge" worked not because the wages of American workers were high, but because the U.S. mounted a huge private debt, unable to finance any excess of expenditure over income. The expansion of debt has gradually involved all social classes population. It was passed by the directors to executives of the American system, up to the employees of the fringes of cities, often already insolvent and seized. The system had become so addicted that allowed a worker to pay the debts of turning on a new mortgage loan, and repay only the interest on the loan by activating a credit card, and so on. In short, to paraphrase a great economist, Hyman Minsky, we could speak of "ultra-speculative working poor", that is, despite their poor transformed into ultra-speculators. He could never hold such a fragile castle of debt? No, it was more like a time bomb and the bomb went off in the end. The problem is that to pay the consequences could be once again employed, while the masters of Wall Street, which manufactured the bomb, they could even get to make money. Take for example the Paulson plan, which was undermined by the U.S. Congress, but later it was approved. It provides that the State purchases the risky securities from investment banks and in return they give in fresh cash, with the possibility in a second phase to sell those securities back to the banks, once the storm has passed. Well, if the federal government acquired at prices high enough, the bankers would eventually end up with a capital gain achieved at the expense of the public budget. Moreover, symptoms distributive effect of this scandal are already being felt in the presidential campaign. Obama, in the scent of victory, has already hinted that the increase in public debt caused by the bailouts could force him to shelve plans for financing health care public. And this is in fact a really bad way to present a candidate on which, even here in Europe, liberals are placing a lot - perhaps too much - hope. The current crisis is a watershed that will change the life, the social and economic paradigms in the near future? Much will depend on the length and depth of the crisis. At present, the establishment is gattopardesca adopting a strategy of change so that everything remains as is. The Paulson plan is an example of this strategy, since it consists of an exchange between debt and cash aimed at the least possible impact on the ownership and control of bank capital. The same variant of the sale to the government of preferred shares, which limit the right to vote at one such line gattopardesca. But if this conservative approach fails, it is possible that in America and Europe, individual governments are forced to take significant stakes in both banks and business in commercial banks. And if the financial crisis while the economy to be extended real, it is possible that by then the governments decide to use the acquired positions to launch massive programs of public intervention in support of production and employment. In fact this kind of evolution of the situation few would have bet, until a few months ago. But now many economists who are facing these scenarios, and some even come to admit the possibility of an unemployment rate of U.S. two-digit by the end of 2009. He therefore failed ideology of liberalism, capitalism and yet have "counted the centuries? This expression, Giorgio Ruffolo, is ironic and funny, but would be very naive to take it seriously. Taken literally become similar to that of the Soviet Union who once assigned the task to trace the path of the future for all humanity. In short, to use philosophical, in both cases I smell teleology, destiny, and what intrigues me is not at all. At the same time, curious if anyone would find it advanced the idea of \u200b\u200bheroic imminent end of capitalism. I do not see how this could eventually materialize, as the labor movement is the great missing an appointment with this colossal disaster. Rather, I see the possibility of a shift powers, from financial to political lobbies, and also lobbies in U.S. politics and Western Asia. We could really say about the decline of American empire, this time? Despite appearances, and beyond the temporary thrills and jolts, the American decline has been ongoing for at least a quarter of a century. This decline is symptomatic of the long-term trend of the dollar in the past two decades from the equivalent of one euro and a half to about two-thirds of a euro. This creates distrust in the fall against the greenback, and probably prevent the U.S. to once again play the role of "sponge" of surplus production other countries. In the absence of global leadership alternative, you run the serious risk of a deadlock in the international monetary system. And if so, the profile evolution of the crisis could take really dark and unpredictable characteristics. Italy and the crisis: the government uses soothing tones, but the risk that the banks end up in the vortex exists. An opinion? confidence between banks is at its lowest in the world, and therefore also in Italy. The fear that a bank may be insolvent suddenly pushes the entire system not to grant credit. Euribor rates - to which European banks lend money to each other - have hit these days extremely high peaks. The lending rate for maturities of one week reached its highest since early 1994, well before the advent of the euro. It 'clear that in this climate, even the Italian banks suffering from the situation of mistrust and are therefore subject to strong tensions. However, compared to Spain and other southern European countries we are being a bit 'better, and this situation of relative minor weakness stems from the fact that Italy's debt is mostly public, and is therefore more secure and private. It means that the much-reviled public debt in this case is helping us? Exactly. But this is nothing new: greater financial stability conferred by a dominant share of public debt than private debt is a fact widely acknowledged by the scholarly community. Only the cheerleaders of free hard time recognizing him. The problem is that liberals in this country the Pasdaran have shaped the consciousness, coming to shape not only people's opinions but also the policies of the vertices of the state. I refer to the recent externalization of President Napolitano. In a time when all countries are scrambling to swell the national debt to stabilize the system, he said that the cuts to the school are required to follow the direction of killing the public debt. This Frankly, the more sudden than that you die. 
